WorldACD: Global Air Cargo Market Stabilizes Ahead of Lunar New Year

According to the latest weekly figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data, global air cargo demand and pricing broadly stabilized during the third full week of 2026. The market has completed its recovery from the typical end-of-year slump, poised to enter a short-term demand surge expected from the Asia-Pacific region ahead of the Lunar New Year (LNY) in the second half of February.

A Multidimensional Picture: Flowers, Blizzards, and Geopolitics

While the general market finds its equilibrium, specific segments are witnessing contrasting activity or disruptions. Demand for fresh flower transport is ramping up in preparation for Valentine's Day (Feb 14), particularly from Central & South America (CSA) and Kenya.

However, the transport landscape is also shadowed by severe weather-related disruptions to cargo flows into and out of North America, alongside flight disruptions in parts of the Middle East due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran.

Volumes Fluctuate Due to Severe Weather

Global chargeable weight rose by +1% in Week 4 (January 19 to 25). The primary drivers were a +2% week-on-week (WoW) increase in flows from Asia-Pacific and a +10% surge from the CSA region.

However, this growth momentum was partially curbed by a -9% WoW drop in cargo traffic from North America, as severe weather disrupted airport operations. Winter storms led to thousands of flight cancellations across North America, impacting vast swathes of the United States.

Based on over 500,000 weekly transactions recorded by WorldACD, cargo volumes plummeted in affected regions:

•    US Midwest: -14%

•    US Northeast: -17%

•    Western Canada: -15%

•    US South: -19%

Despite this, total global volume in Week 4 continued to exceed the same period last year (+3% YoY). However, this demand growth has not kept pace with the increase in capacity, which rose by +6% YoY, exerting downward pressure on rates on a year-on-year basis (-1% YoY).

Rates Recover Slightly

Compared to the previous week, global average rates are gradually climbing back after bottoming out in Week 2, inching up +2% WoW to $2.43/kg. This rate recovery pace is slightly slower than last year, likely due to the robust recovery in capacity (+6% YoY) mentioned above.

Source: WorldACD

Asia-Pacific: The Pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) Effect

After two weeks of strong volume recovery on routes from Asia-Pacific to the US and Europe, overall growth stalled in Week 4 with volumes remaining flat on both trade lanes.

Regarding pricing, regional average spot rates increased slightly week-on-week (+2% to the US and +3% to Europe).

Most notable is the volatility in the China market:

•    Spot rates from China to the US rose +6%, reaching $4.02/kg.

•    Spot rates from China to Europe rose +7%, reaching $3.80/kg.

Freight forwarders report that in South China, demand is rising as the market enters the pre-LNY peak phase, while capacity continues to tighten. Conversely, in North China, there are currently few signs of a pre-LNY peak.

Mass flight cancellations due to winter storms in the US and Canada have exacerbated space constraints from certain Asia-Pacific markets to specific US destinations, driving up rates from markets such as South China, Vietnam, and Taiwan (China). Capacity constraints, combined with potential cargo backlogs and rising demand ahead of Lunar New Year (Feb 17), will likely continue to exert upward pressure on spot rates in Week 5 and subsequent weeks on the Asia-Pacific to US lane.

Bright Spot from Middle East & South Asia (MESA)

The Middle East & South Asia (MESA) region continues to be a bright spot for year-on-year volume growth since last July. This trend extends into 2026, with volumes originating from MESA in Week 4 up +10% YoY (with flows to the US up +11% and to Europe up +7%).

Despite higher tariffs imposed by the US on India in the second half of 2025, India - the region's largest export market - still recorded robust growth in volumes to the US during the final two months of 2025. that growth momentum continued into January, including a +15% YoY increase in Week 4.

Source: WorldACD

See more:

• Maersk Takes Over Two Panama Canal Gateway Ports Following Court Ruling
• Port of Savannah Wraps Up 2025 with Second-Highest Throughput in History
• COSCO schedules: Vietnam - North America in Feb 2026
• SITC updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in Feb 2026
• COSCO updates Vietnam-North Europe sailing schedules in Feb 2026
• Port of Singapore 2025: Setting Double Records in Container Throughput and Bunkering
• International Shipping and Logistics Market Update Week 4/2026 | Phaata
• Indian Logistics Sector Eyes Policy Stability and Infrastructure Push in 2026
• CNC Enhances JTX Service: Direct Call to Sihanoukville and Optimized Transshipment via Vung Tau
• DHL Global Forwarding Launches Multimodal 'Truck-Air' Service: A New Bridge for the Asia-Europe Route

Source: Phaata.com (According to Asian Aviation)

► Find Better Freight Rates & Logistics Service Providers!