Post-Lunar New Year Transpacific Freight Demand Softens Amid Capacity Restructuring

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As the Lunar New Year holidays come to a close and the transpacific container market slowly resumes activity, total shipping capacity on this trade lane has seen a year-over-year decline. This shift occurs just ahead of the anticipated announcement of the first wave of U.S. tariffs.

According to the latest analysis by Alphaliner, total capacity across the transpacific trade currently stands at 5.2 million TEUs, operated by a fleet of 532 container ships. This represents a 3.2% drop compared to the beginning of 2025, when 554 vessels were deployed.

Source: Alphaliner

Stark Divergence Among Ocean Carriers

Beneath the overarching trend of capacity reduction lies a mixed picture among individual carriers. While some are aggressively injecting tonnage into the market, others are showing clear signs of scaling back:

●    Capacity Reducers: Maersk and CMA CGM have both significantly slashed their operational capacity year-over-year, dropping by 24.3% and 15.2%, respectively.

●    Capacity Increasers: Japanese carrier ONE bucked the trend, boosting its capacity supply by 10.3%.

Most notably, Yang Ming - ONE’s partner in the Premier Alliance - recorded the steepest capacity drop in the market at 30%. However, Alphaliner explains that this decline is primarily due to the carrier redirecting its tonnage to Asia-Europe routes. Alphaliner noted:

"Yang Ming’s year-on-year capacity reduction might look spectacular, but is purely the consequence of vessel pooling within the Premier Alliance,"

"The Taiwanese carrier has shifted 108,600 teu of vessel capacity to the Far East-Europe trade, where it had very few ships."

The Ripple Effect of the Gemini Cooperation

Similarly, shifts in alliance structures explain the substantial capacity drop for Maersk.

Alphaliner analyzed:

"In the case of Maersk, ranked sixth, there are changes explaining the 24.3% year-on-year capacity reduction. The Danish carrier closed its TPX service between the Far East, Tacoma, and Alaska in February last year, when it joined forces with Hapag-Lloyd in the new Gemini Cooperation."

Conversely, the formation of the Gemini Cooperation has had a positive impact on its partner, Hapag-Lloyd. The carrier witnessed an increase in its transpacific capacity even as Maersk scaled back:

"Its membership of Gemini has significantly increased Hapag-Lloyd’s fleet on the trade, by 24.3%."

"The Hamburg-based carrier is the single tonnage provider for loops such as the Far East-US east coast TP12/US2 and TP16/US4, in which a total of 27 vessels of between 8,750 teu and 13,900 teu are deployed."

The net result for Maersk is that its total capacity offered under the Gemini umbrella remains fundamentally on par with what it provided during the 2M Vessel Sharing Agreement (VSA) with MSC (which expired at this time last year).

"For Maersk, the total capacity offered by Gemini – 884,500 teu for a market share of 17% – is pretty comparable witjh the size of its 2M vessel-sharing agreement (VSA) with MSC – 883,200 teu in January 2025."

Meanwhile, in its journey to build an independent global network, MSC recorded an 11.7% increase in transpacific capacity over the past year to fill the void left by Maersk.

Alliance Market Shares and Near-Term Market Outlook

In terms of Vessel Sharing Agreements (VSAs), the Ocean Alliance retains its position as the largest provider, capturing 35.3% of total transpacific capacity. It is closely followed by the Premier Alliance at 21.4% and Gemini at 17%. Operating independently, MSC sits right behind Gemini with a 16% market share.

Over the next two weeks, market capacity is expected to tighten further, with approximately 15 blank sailings scheduled for this week and another 10 next week. Post-Lunar New Year freight demand remains a major question mark and is highly unpredictable.

Freight Right, a U.S. West Coast-based freight forwarder, offered market commentary reflecting the current subdued atmosphere:

"Most market participants in Asia are currently away for the holiday, leading to a complete lack of interest in new business or shipping schedules."

"The rush to ship cargo before the shutdown concluded last week, leaving behind very little in terms of current cargo movement."

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Source: Phaata.com (According to The Load Star)

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