Hormuz Traffic in Freefall: Iran Tightens Its Grip as the World Waits to See What 'Reopening' Really Means

Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is in sharp decline following Iran's recent escalatory moves and the U.S. deployment of "Project Freedom." According to data from Lloyd's List Intelligence, weekly commercial vessel transits through the strait have fallen from 78 in mid-April to just 40 in early May.

Traffic Falls to "a Trickle"

Speaking at a recent online briefing, Richard Meade, Editor-in-Chief of Lloyd's List Intelligence, observed that the U.S. blockade is beginning to take effect, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz having dropped to "a trickle."

"At the start of this conflict, transits were still dominated by dark fleet operators," he said. "Now, traffic has clearly fallen to a trickle, but of the few voyages that are still taking place, it's roughly 50-50 between dark fleet tankers and compliant vessels."

Meade noted that some figures may still be revised upward as additional dark fleet activity is recorded, but maintained that the recent escalation had brought "observable tanker traffic to a near-complete standstill."

Iran Creates a New Agency — and Starts Charging Transit Fees

Meade also highlighted Iran's tightening grip over the waterway, with Tehran establishing a new state body dedicated to approving vessel schedules and collecting fees for Strait of Hormuz transits.

"The Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has positioned itself as the sole authority empowered to grant vessels permission to transit the strait. It has issued a new regulatory framework requiring ships to apply for transit clearance and pay fees prior to departure."

This follows Iran's announcement on Monday, May 4, of a new maritime control zone — one that appears to extend across the territorial waters of both Iran and the United Arab Emirates, including Fujairah. Meade warned this could create serious complications for any future peace agreement.

"In that context, Khor Fakkan and particularly Fujairah are critical gateway ports — not just for the UAE itself, but as feeder connection points for overland services into the Persian Gulf."

China Steps Up Diplomatic Pressure — But Don't Expect an Overnight Shift

Cichen Shen, Lloyd's List Intelligence's Asia-Pacific Editor based in Hong Kong, said there are growing signs of diplomatic pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — particularly from China, which has become "more vocal and assertive" in its diplomatic engagement since the conflict began.

While there is some optimism within China's shipping community that recent diplomatic talks could help reopen the waterway, Shen cautioned against expectations of any immediate change.

"A meeting between two foreign ministers is not going to change the situation overnight," he said, adding that it remains unclear whether part of the recent diplomatic activity is aimed at positioning ahead of high-level Washington-Beijing dialogue scheduled for next week.

"Open" — But Open to Whom? Tehran and the World Are Not Speaking the Same Language

Shen underscored a crucial point: there remains a significant gap between how different parties define what "opening" the Strait of Hormuz actually means.

"There appears to be a disconnect between how Iran understands the opening of the strait and how the rest of the world understands it."

While the broader international shipping community interprets "open" as a return to pre-conflict conditions — with free and unrestricted passage — Tehran appears to view the waterway as still operational, simply operating under Iranian oversight and control.

"Iranian authorities have repeatedly stated that the strait is open," Shen said. "But it is open under their supervision, under their control, and now effectively as a tolled passage — and the establishment of the PGSA is the legal basis they use to justify that position."

He added that considerable uncertainty remains over whether the U.S. and Iran share any common understanding of what the practical reopening of the strait would actually entail.

Citing remarks by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi — who is reported to have declared there will be "no return to the old status quo" — Shen suggested that some form of change is now inevitable.

"It seems Iran is not willing to give up what has become its most powerful leverage, its greatest source of revenue, and its most important insurance policy."

Hormuz — A Problem That Reaches Far Beyond the Middle East

Shen concluded that the issue is now clearly more a matter of diplomacy than of shipping — but that whatever unfolds around the Strait of Hormuz will have ripple effects far beyond the Middle East.

"What happens at the Strait of Hormuz will not stay at the Strait of Hormuz," he warned — implying that the outcome of this conflict could set a precedent with lasting consequences for freedom of navigation at strategic chokepoints around the world.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Freight News)

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