Profit forecast of container shipping lines is up to 150 billion USD in 2021 and possibly more next year

With supply chain disruptions still ongoing, consultants Drewry are now forecasting container shipping lines to make huge profits of $150 billion in 2021, and possibly more in 2022.

Forecasting profit of container shipping lines up to 150 billion USD in 2021

Forecasting profit of container shipping lines up to 150 billion USD in 2021

Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) for container lines in Q2 exceeded all expectations and the major listed companies raised their profit forecasts for the rest of the year.

In the second quarter, Drewry estimates that EBIT came in at $39.2 billion, an 11-fold increase year-over-year. Drewry noted that higher fuel costs and charter rates had increased but had little impact on the carriers it tracks, which had increased margins compared to Q1, some of which increased more than 50%.

There was a forecast in July that the combined profit of the container lines could hit $100 billion in profit in 2021, but Drewry has now raised this EBIT forecast to $150 billion. Forecasting for 2022, Drewry said the EBIT of shipping lines "could be slightly more again".

“To seasoned observers of the container market, typing these numbers on a page is frankly surreal,” the analyst commented in a report by Container Insight.

Container ship supply lags behind demand through 2023 with port handling expected to grow 8.2% this year and 5.2% in 2022.

Looking at freight rates, Drewry said that "Stronger than expected spot rate movement in 3Q21 and a longer supply chain recovery timeline are behind our reason to upgrade the outlook for average global freight rates (spot and contract) for 2021 to 126%, which is an upward adjustment from 47% in our June forecast."

“For 2022, spot rates are expected to decline, but there will be a significant increase in contract pricing, leading to an increase in average global pricing of about 6%.”

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