North America West Coast Q4 2025 Throughput: The Aftermath of the 'Front-Loading' Strategy

In edition 751 of its Sunday Spotlight, Sea-Intelligence published an in-depth analysis of container throughput data at North America West Coast (NAWC) ports for the 2024–2025 period. The analysis aimed to evaluate shifts in the timing of peak laden import volumes.

The data highlights a definitive trend: the surge in early 2025 imports came at the expense of a significant volume contraction in the fourth quarter.

The Summer Peak: "Borrowing" Demand from the Future

The seasonal distribution of cargo volumes underwent a major shift. In 2025, total laden imports peaked early in July, reaching 1.42 million TEU—the highest single-month activity recorded since May 2021.

This peak arrived a full month earlier than in 2024. The primary driver was shippers accelerating their import schedules to mitigate anticipated year-end supply chain risks. However, the subsequent decline exposed the true nature of this surge: it was essentially "borrowed" demand from the future.

A Record-Breaking Slide in Q4 2025

Unlike 2024, when volumes remained resilient throughout the fourth quarter (with October levels holding steady against the August peak), 2025 witnessed a rapid descent:

●    October 2025: Volumes fell to 1.18 million TEU, representing a massive drop of approximately 236,000 TEU from the seasonal peak.

●    November 2025: Throughput retreated further to 1.15 million TEU.

On a year-on-year (Y/Y) basis, laden imports in October 2025 dropped by 10.4%, followed by a 6.7% decline in November. Overall, the fourth quarter of 2025 saw a 7.6% decrease in volume compared to the same period the previous year.

A Rare Historical Contraction

Excluding the volatile pandemic years, Q4 2025 stands as the period with the sharpest quarter-on-quarter (Q/Q) volume decline between 2013 and 2025. Furthermore, this marks only the second time in over a decade (the first being 2019) that fourth-quarter volumes recorded a year-on-year contraction.

These figures serve as clear evidence that the surge in summer 2025 was not driven by organic growth in consumer demand. Instead, it was the result of a deliberate acceleration of imports that exhausted seasonal demand early, inevitably leaving ports with a significant throughput deficit at year-end.

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Source: Phaata.com (According to Sea-Intelligence)

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