International Shipping and Logistics Market Update Week 3/2026 | Phaata

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 3/2026

Table of Contents

1. World Container Index Week 3/2026

2. Asia - North America Ocean Freight Rates

3. Asia - Europe Ocean Freight Rates

4. Northern America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

6. Conclusions and Recommendations by Phaata

1. World Container Index Week 3/2026

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) for Week 3/2026 (January 12–18, 2026) reversed course, decreasing by 4% compared to the previous week, dropping to $2,445/FEU.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 3/2026 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

Contrary to the usual annual Peak Season patterns, the Asia to North America West Coast market in Week 3/2026 (Jan 12–18) is operating in a state of oversupply. The late arrival of the Lunar New Year (mid-February) has "diluted" demand, preventing cargo consolidation pressure from peaking. Consequently, carriers' General Rate Increase (GRI) attempts have failed, creating a rare opportunity for shippers to optimize costs right before the holiday.

Supply and Demand:

Demand Side:

Cargo volumes have remained steady since the post-holiday period in December but completely lack the typical sudden surges. The late Lunar New Year has caused cargo consolidation to be "spread out." Instead of being concentrated into 2-3 weeks, volumes are dispersed over 5-6 weeks, reducing pressure on the transport system. As of mid-January, the market has yet to record any significant signals of volume growth.

Supply Side: January & Early February:

Capacity deployment remains high, estimated at 80-85% in January and expected to rise slightly to 90% in the first half of February. Post-Tet Warning: However, a looming "trough" must be noted. A widespread blank sailing period related to Tet capacity adjustments will begin from late February and extend to the first week of March. This is when carriers will tighten the valve to support rates. Space Status: Currently, space is open at most major Asian gateway ports. Only a few specific service loops are showing signs of mild tightness.

Rate Developments:

Ocean Freight rates from Asia to the North America West Coast in Week 3/2026 (Jan 12–18) reversed downward by 5.09% week-on-week, falling to $2,627/FEU. This represents a 35.9% increase month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

Failed Jan 15 GRI: Most carriers were forced to withdraw their January 15 GRI announcements due to soft volumes. A few chose to "buy time" by postponing hikes for a week or signaling an extension of current rates into February.

PSS Retreats: The Peak Season Surcharge (PSS)—a key profit driver during Tet—has been pushed back to February, with some carriers even delaying it until March.

Phaata's Assessment: With Tet just over 4 weeks away, these moves clearly indicate a lack of peak season pressure in the current market. This is the most critical indicator that negotiating leverage lies with shippers.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 3/2026 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 3/2026 marks a shift from general tariff threats to specific bilateral agreements. The newly signed US-Taiwan Agreement (Jan 15) is a prime example of the "Friend-shoring" strategy: the US trades tax incentives for $250 billion in tech investment. Conversely, nations trading with Iran (particularly China) face the risk of punitive 25% tariffs.

1. US-Taiwan Trade Agreement: "Tariffs for Chips"

This is the week's most earth-shaking event, reshaping the high-tech supply chain. On Jan 15, the US and Taiwan signed a historic trade deal.

"Quid Pro Quo" Mechanism:

• US Concessions:

  • Reduced reciprocal tariffs from 20% to a maximum of 15%.

  • Capped Section 232 tariffs at 15% (instead of 25% for other nations) for auto parts, lumber, and wood products.

  • Full reciprocal tariff exemption for generic pharmaceuticals, aircraft parts, and scarce natural resources from Taiwan.

• Taiwan Commitments: Tech/semiconductor firms will invest at least $250 billion in the US.

Special Semiconductor Quota: To encourage US factory construction, Taiwanese firms are permitted to import chips at 2.5 times projected capacity (during construction) and 1.5 times actual capacity (upon completion) exempt from Section 232 tariffs.

This is a strategic masterstroke by the US to onshore the semiconductor supply chain while reducing long-term dependence on direct Asian imports.

2. The Semiconductor & Strategic Mineral "Pincer"

The US is utilizing Section 232 (National Security) as a versatile weapon to control industrial inputs.

New Advanced Chip Tariffs (Effective Jan 15, 2026): A 25% tariff is imposed on advanced computing chips (like NVIDIA H200, AMD MI325X). Imports for use in Data Centers, R&D, or repair within the US are exempt. This aims to protect the interests of US tech giants (Google, Microsoft, Amazon) while restricting tech flow externally or from rivals.

Strategic Minerals: Following the conclusion of a Section 232 investigation, President Trump laid the groundwork to control the supply of 12 minerals for which the US is 100% import-dependent (especially rare earths from China). If supply deals are not reached with partner nations, the US could impose minimum import prices or punitive tariffs. This forecasts raw material price volatility in 2026.

3. New Geopolitical Risk: The Iran "Penalty"

President Trump announced (on Truth Social) a 25% tariff on any nation "doing business" with Iran.

Although no Executive Order has been issued yet, the most impacted targets would be China (Iran's largest trade partner, importing 80% of its oil) and India.

If implemented, this would be a second shock to Chinese goods (following Mexico's 50% tariff), forcing global businesses to choose sides more clearly.

4. Operational Reform: CBP & CPSC (Compliance is Survival)

Electronic Drawback (CBP): From Feb 6, 2026, CBP will stop issuing drawback checks. All refunds will be electronic. Businesses must have an ACE Portal account and set up ACH information immediately to avoid capital lock-up.

eFiling (CPSC): The deadline is July 8, 2026 for consumer goods. Businesses should register for a CPSC eFiling account now to run beta tests.

Stay tuned to articles on the Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for rapid and in-depth market updates.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North Europe market in Week 3 (Jan 12 - 18, 2026) is operating at "maximum capacity." This year's pre-Lunar New Year peak season arrived early, turning January into a true peak month. Carriers have shifted tactics from "supply restriction for price support" to "volume maximization" to clear cargo. However, this effort is meeting challenges from severe weather conditions in North Europe, causing serious congestion at destination ports.

On supply and demand: 

Demand: Shippers have aggressively executed front-loading strategies. Demand peaked 6 weeks earlier than usual, turning January—typically a buffer month—into the focal point of shipping pressure. European importers are racing against time to secure inventory before Asian factories close in mid-February.

Supply: To meet this pent-up demand, carriers injected a record amount of capacity into the market: 1.15 million TEU in January alone. Blank sailing rates are currently quite low (removing only about 25,000 TEU). This is a distinct divergence from traditional tactics (cutting supply to anchor prices). Carriers are prioritizing cargo clearance to optimize revenue on every full vessel before the holiday begins.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

While cargo leaves Asia quickly, the European end is severely congested due to harsh winter conditions:

• Hamburg (Germany): Extreme weather has caused truck handling capacity at terminals to plummet, from 170 slots/hour to just 30 slots/hour. This >80% efficiency drop is causing logistics chain backups.

• Rotterdam (Netherlands): Vessel berthing wait times are reaching 48 hours. Yard density is hitting critical levels, threatening the ability to accept new containers.

Freight Rate Developments: 

Ocean Freight rates from Asia to Europe in Week 3/2026 continued a slight increase of 0.42% to $2,841/FEU. This represents a 12.78% increase month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

The market maintained strong upward price momentum throughout January. Localized space scarcity (due to high demand, not supply cuts) and the urgency of pre-Tet bookings were the main drivers.

Carriers successfully established a higher Freight All Kinds (FAK) rate baseline for the second half of January. The success of rate hikes even amidst record supply (1.15 million TEU) proves that demand is immense. Carriers hold pricing power.

Phaata forecasts the shipping peak will last until early February. While slight downward pressure may appear in some segments, the likelihood of a sharp rate collapse is very low as demand continues to anchor the market.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 3/2026 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Ocean Freight rates from North America (West Coast) to Asia in Week 3/2026 reversed upward by 0.66% week-on-week, reaching $612/FEU. This represents a 5.41% decrease month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 3/2026 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Ocean Freight rates from North Europe to Asia in Week 3/2026 continued a slight increase of 1.28%, reaching $158/FEU week-on-week. This represents a 15.33% increase month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 3/2026 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 2/2026 is entering a phase of "forced acceleration" characterized by three core features:

Peak Season Paradox:

• Asia-US: Diluted demand, failed GRIs, and falling rates (-5%) indicate negotiating leverage belongs to shippers.

• Asia-Europe: Conversely, facing intense peak season pressure. Despite record supply, early shipping demand plus severe weather in North Europe has kept rates high and made schedule reliability a challenging factor.

Geopolitics Replacing Tariffs: The US-Taiwan deal and potential sanctions on Iran signal the trend for 2026: Origin is more important than cost. Tech supply chains are shifting heavily along the "Friend-shoring" axis.

Recommendations from Phaata

Businesses need to apply flexible tactics depending on the target market:

1. Tactics for US Trade:

Push Negotiations: With the Jan 15 GRI failure, ask Forwarders/Carriers to extend old rates or apply discounts for pre-Tet shipments.

Post-Tet Caution: Although currently "easy breathing," heed warnings about blank sailings in late February. Start planning bookings for shipments immediately after Tet to avoid getting rolled when carriers tighten supply again.

2. Tactics for Europe Trade:

Client Warning: With Hamburg port efficiency down 80% and Rotterdam congested, notify import partners of potential delivery delays of 3-7 days after vessel arrival.

Routing Priority: If possible, consider routing options into South European ports or niche ports less affected by snowstorms to clear cargo faster.

3. Tech Supply Chain Strategy (Act Now):

Leverage Taiwan Incentives: US businesses importing components, auto parts, and lumber from Taiwan need to review HS codes immediately. The tariff reduction to 15% is a huge opportunity to lower COGS.

Review China Risks: With the threat of 25% tariffs for nations dealing with Iran, importers from China need to monitor closely. Diversify backup supply sources to avoid collateral damage from sudden sanctions.

4. ACE Portal Setup:

There are less than 3 weeks left (Feb 6) until the US government stops issuing drawback checks. Accounting departments of US businesses must ensure ACE Portal accounts and bank information are ready so cash flow from refunds is not blocked.

Stay tuned to articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage for rapid and in-depth market updates.

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Source: Phaata -  Vietnam's First International Logistics Marketplace

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