Dry bulk shipping market forecasted to decline in 2023

Dry bulk carrier (Photo: Lloyd's List)

Adam Kent, Managing Director of Maritime Strategies International (MSI), told the Seatrade Maritime Podcast that the lockdown in China and concerns about the country's property market have had a sizable impact on the dry bulk shipping market over the last six months.

“Then we've seen global steel production down by around 5%. This year, iron ore imports down by around 3%, and that's had a huge knock-on effect to the dry bulk industry,” explained Kent.

The dry bulk shipping market has also benefited from the transformation of containerized shipments to bulk cargo, as container freight rates reach all-time highs, and as container freight rates are currently plummeting, has driven a large number of goods to be moved from bulk cargo back to containers.

There is also the impact of the broader global economy on the dry bulk freight market. “I think in general with very high commodity prices and high inflation, this has had a pretty big impact on the dry bulk shipping market during the past eight months,” he said.

On the shipping supply side, port congestion, which has constrained supply, has improved significantly this year with supply chains starting to return to normal. “Port congestion is unwinding very quickly. And that's bringing a lot of tonnage back into the market.”

Recent analysis by MSI shows that between 7-10% of the bulk cargo fleet was congested last year, equivalent to the capacity needed to service iron ore shipping demand between Australia and China. “So, we've got all of those ships coming back into the trading fleet, which is obviously going to be detrimental to market balances,” explained Kent.

What does this mean for the prospects of the dry bulk freight market in 2023? In the short term, MSI is forecast to see a rebound in the next six months thanks to the increased steel consumption factor.

However, looking beyond the next six months, overall, the market is expected to be weaker. “Although we expect to see some strength in the next six months we do expect to see, if you look at things on an annual average basis, the dry bulk market to be weaker next year than it is this year. And that's as much on the demand side as anything because the world sort of readjusts post Covid," forecasted Kent.

Source: Phaata.com (According to Seatrade Maritime)

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