Export prices are high, but businesses are worried about a shortage of pangasius raw materials.

Despite high export prices and numerous orders for pangasius fish, businesses are concerned about a potential shortage of raw materials for processing export products in the coming months.

Export prices to the US reach a new peak.

According to business assessments, pangasius exports to the US market are growing well. After the final results of the POR17 anti-dumping duties were announced, pangasius businesses not subject to the duties are stepping up exports to this market.

As of the end of March 2022, the total value of pangasius exports to the US reached over $160 million, an increase of 123%. Currently, record inflation is occurring in the US due to supply chain disruptions and the impact of the Ukraine crisis, prices are skyrocketing, and the demand for essential goods, including food and seafood, is surging. Therefore, this presents a good opportunity for businesses exporting frozen pangasius to this market.

According to Ms. Ta Ha, a pangasius market expert at the Vietnam Association of Seafood Processing and Export (VASEP), after the price of raw pangasius in the Mekong Delta peaked at the end of the first quarter of 2022, the average export price of frozen pangasius fillets to most markets also increased sharply.

The sharp increase in raw fish prices has driven up the average export price of frozen pangasius fillets to between 3.2 and 3.4 USD/kg. Of these, the average export price to the US market is the highest, rising sharply to over 4.5 USD/kg. This price is even higher than the peak price of 2019.

Shipments of processed pangasius fish being transported to the US during this period mainly consist of large frozen pangasius fillets measuring 7-9 oz, 8-10 oz, and 10-12 oz. Meanwhile, frozen commercial pangasius in sizes of 3-5 oz and 5-7 oz are in short supply.

The average export price of frozen pangasius fillets to the Chinese market is also significantly higher than last year, ranging from 2.4 to 3.25 USD/kg (compared to 1.9 to 2.7 USD/kg in the same period last year).

In addition, Vietnamese businesses are also exporting whole pangasius fish, frozen butterfly-cut pangasius, frozen pangasius stomachs, dried pangasius swim bladders, frozen whole pangasius fish without internal organs, frozen pangasius skin blocks, etc., to China.

Export prices for frozen fish fillets to the EU are also favorable, ranging from 2.9 to 3.45 USD/kg. In particular, export prices to the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, and Spain have increased and remained stable compared to the same period in 2021.

Worried about a shortage of raw materials.

Ms. Ta Ha analyzed that the global pangasius market is trending positively, with increasing orders, but there is a shortage of raw fish.

According to data from the General Department of Fisheries, the area for new pangasius farming is currently only 94% compared to the same period last year. Harvested production reached 350,000 tons, an increase of 8.8% compared to the same period last year. In some key pangasius-producing localities such as Dong Thap, the pangasius farming area also only reached 94.6%; the intensive pangasius farming area in Vinh Long also decreased by 22.9% compared to the same period last year.

Forecasts indicate that the shortage of raw materials will continue until at least the end of the second quarter of 2022. Currently, the price of pangasius fish weighing 0.7 - 0.8 kg/fish ranges from 31,000 - 32,500 VND/kg; and for fish weighing 1 - 1.2 kg/fish, it ranges from 32,000 - 34,500 VND/kg. Thus, compared to the same period last year, the price of raw pangasius fish has increased by 8,000 - 10,000 VND/kg and by about 20% compared to the end of 2021.

The recent increase in raw pangasius prices has motivated farmers to resume farming, however, the costs of feed, fingerlings, and other input materials have also risen rapidly, mirroring the increase in selling prices. Therefore, to date, neither farmers nor businesses have made significant profits. On the other hand, the market outlook is positive and more promising in the coming quarters.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is still ongoing, which significantly impacts and complicates market direction. Therefore, both export businesses and farmers need to carefully calculate and balance farming area and production volume with market fluctuations to avoid a repeat of the oversupply crisis seen a few years ago.

According to the Customs Newspaper